Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Investors basics




Chapter 1: Investing basics
Have you ever wished you could give up your job to live life on your own terms, without having any money troubles? Do you find that your expenses increase by geometric progression, while your yearly raise and bonus increases by arithmetic progression?

Do you find it unfair that the rich seem to grow richer almost effortlessly, while most of us ordinary folk struggle to save even meagre amounts?
If you answered ‘Yes’ to any of these questions, then it’s time to re-think your savings and investment strategy. Investing is not about parking a little money in the bank every few months. It may not be rocket science; but it’s no cake walk either. A good investment strategy needs both, time and money. Why invest? Until a few years ago, it was common for people to stay in the same job all their working lives. But today, unlike in a cushy government job, where one gets pension that has a dearness allowance built in (to take some of the bite off inflation), most people work in the private sector, without any guaranteed job security. Thus, the only way to secure old age is to invest now, when one is young and capable of earning.

For the ‘sandwich’ generation, i.e., the ones who look after their aged parents and take care of their children’s needs today, but can’t depend upon their children to look after them in their old age, it’s all the more critical that they make the most of their earning years and invest for their future needs. If that sounds intimidating, take heart. All you need to get started is a primer on investing. That’s what this book is about. To begin, investment is all about making your money earn you more money. Simply put, it is the practice of making your money work for you, rather than you working for your money. Understanding cash flow When you examine the various entries in your bank statements, you will find that the credits into your account come from one or more of the following sources:
Salary,
Business and
Investment income (interest, dividends, etc.) Now let’s look at where your hard


earned money vanishes each month:
Expenses
Essentials (house rent, utility payments, food, and clothing)
Non-essentials (the new flat screen television, the designer bag or perfume, the latest mobile or other forms of consumption expenditure)
Taxes, over which most salaried people have little control; and
Investments (money spent in obtaining insurance, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, fixed deposits, etc.), which, unfortunately comes last in the order of priority for most people. After this little exercise, you hopefully know where your earnings come from and where they go.

Now, examine your outflows in order of priority. Do you invest first or do you wait until all your expenses are met before turning to investment? If the latter holds true for you, then you would do well to heed the advice of Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller “Rich Dad Poor Dad”. According to Kiyosaki, the secret to getting rich is to pay yourself first (i.e., invest for your future), before you pay others (utilities, shops, etc). Investments must, hence, be foremost in the order of priority barring any financial emergency. That way, you’re sure of saving a particular amount each month; in addition, it may also encourage you to limit your spends within your means. Where to invest? There are so many different investment avenues such as stocks, mutual funds, government bonds, post office schemes, bank fixed deposits, commodities, gold, real estate, art etc., that a regular person might be scared of the whole exercise. If your usual investment strategy is to dash off to the local bank and put your money into a fixed deposit (FD), then it’s time to re-think. There’s nothing wrong with FDs. They are time tested, safe, and in the current interest rate scenario, also attractive. However, if your aim is to create wealth to achieve short-term and long term financial goals (foreign vacation, children’s education and marriage, retirement and so on), FDs lag sadly behind other forms of investment. Although banks may appear to offer attractive interest rates on FDs, the fact is that they often fail to keep up with inflation. Inflation You have heard about it, but do you really know what it means? Inflation is the rate at which the cost of goods and services rises. Simply put, as inflation goes up, your purchasing power decreases. Much like what is happening in the real estate sector now. As real estate prices and interest rates on loans increase, buyers are forced to consider smaller houses in far flung localities. Three years ago, you could have bought a three bedroom apartment in a premium suburb of Mumbai for Rs 75 lakh; today, the same amount will probably get you a one bedroom apartment in the same locality! Thus, your purchasing power has reduced. That’s exactly what inflation does to your savings over time – it reduces the value of your money. Refer to the previous example, where the monthly savings are Rs 10,000. The following table demonstrates how the value of Rs 10,000 varies at different levels of inflation, over a period of time.

Impact of inflation on financial goals This simply means that over the years, you have to spend more in order to maintain your standard of living. What about other expenses like retirement and planning for your children’s higher education? Well, obviously, those will cost dramatically more too. A management course that costs Rs 15 lakh today will cost around Rs 41 lakh (at 7 per cent inflation), 15 years hence when your child is ready for it! In order to meet that expense after 15 years, you will have to block more than Rs 11 lakh today in an FD @ 9%. If you take into account taxation, this figure will be even higher. Hence, even if FDs may marginally beat inflation, this is clearly not enough in the long run, especially for salaried individuals. The following table shows the comparative cost of certain life goals now, and the expected cost after 15 and 20 years, assuming an inflation rate of 7 per cent.

Real return Can you beat inflation? Definitely, but putting your money in a FD is not the way to go about it. To fight inflation, you must invest in a product which gives you not just a higher rate of interest than inflation, but also leaves you with a substantial amount that enables you to meet your goals. If not, you will find that the value of your investment has actually reduced! Shocked? Let’s see why this happens. An investment that offers a return of 10 per cent per annum sounds quite good. But are you really going to earn so much? The answer is ‘No’. You have to factor in inflation to find out your actual earnings. This is called the “real return”. To calculate the real return, you need to subtract the rate of inflation from the stated return. So, assuming an inflation rate of 7 per cent, your real return will be 10 – 7 = 3 per cent. In addition, if you take into account the tax implications, the real return might be even lower. A 30 per cent tax on your 10 per cent interest income would knock off 3 per cent, which is your real return. That doesn’t sound as good, does it? So the next time you have money to invest, keep in mind the real return, and not the advertised one. Thus, you might consider investments such as equities, real estate, and commodities which are relatively insured from inflation, as compared to FDs. Accelerate your earnings: The concept of reinvestment It’s rather simple to make your money work for you. Do you spend the interest you earn on FDs or do you invest it in another avenue, i.e., reinvest it? The simple act of reinvesting the interest earned means you earn interest on the interest and make more money. Isn’t that making your money work for you? Suppose you invested a sum of Rs 2 lakh in the Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (MIS) @ 8 per cent per annum. Every month, a sum of Rs 1,333 will be deposited into your savings account, for a period of 6 years. “Where should i invest such a small amount?”, you may ask. Well, the Department of Posts has a Recurring Deposit (RD) scheme, where you can invest as little as Rs 10 each month @ 8 per cent per annum. Your MIS interest over 5 years would be Rs 80,000. Reinvesting would, hence, earn you an additional interest of 8 per cent on the Rs 80,000, without much effort. Investment avenues such as equities and mutual funds often have a much higher rate of return than FDs and MIS. Imagine how much more you can reinvest. Another advantage of reinvesting is that it can help you reach your financial goals faster. The following example demonstrates how reinvestment over a longer time period can boost your income. Anita and Sunita are 25 years old. Anita invests Rs 10,000 @ 7 per cent (compounded annually) today. Ten years later, Sunita decided she would like to do the same. When they turn 60, they decide to see how much money they have earned. Anita’s Rs 10,000 grows to Rs 1,06,765.81, while Sunita’s Rs 10,000 grows to only Rs 54,274.32! How can the difference be so vast considering that both invested the same amount of money at the same interest rate? The answer is time. Anita begins 10 years earlier and thus earns more interest, which is reinvested, and consequently helps her investment grow exponentially. Hence, your investment needs time and reinvestment of the interest, dividends, and other profits that you get from your original investment. Further, the longer you reinvest your interest income, the higher your original investment grows, and the faster you reach your financial goals. That means, if you plan to save for your retirement, the earlier you begin the lesser you will have to invest to build a bigger nest egg. The following table demonstrates the value of Rs 10,000 invested at 7 per cent over a period of 35 years, assuming that the interest is reinvested.

The power of compounding What exactly is the power of compounding and how can a regular person use it to his or her advantage? Well, to begin with, it goes hand in hand with the concept of reinvestment. Every time you reinvest your income from interest on investments, your capital or principal that is invested goes up. The next time you earn interest, it is on this enhanced capital, and is therefore higher than what you would have received if you chose not to reinvest. Over a period of time, these small extra amounts can add up to a tidy sum. In fact, Albert Einstein, once called compounding the greatest mathematical discovery ever. Apart from time, another factor that influences compounding is the frequency of compounding. You’ve probably heard of investments that offer monthly, quarterly and annual compounding. The shorter the compounding frequency, the more interest you earn, the more interest you reinvest, and the faster your money grows. Taking our previous example of a person saving for his son’s management education, instead of blocking more than Rs 11 lakh today in a FD, he would need to invest approximately Rs 10,900 per month if an RD is available @ 9% (compounded monthly), which is nearly the same as his monthly savings of Rs 10,000. Thus the frequency of compounding has a crucial role to play in investment planning. The following table demonstrates the effect of compounding across different frequencies, for a sum of Rs 10,000 @ 9 per cent per annum for 10 years.

Thus, after 10 years, the investment which was compounded monthly grew by almost Rs 1000 more, than the investment which was compounded annually. Compounding is such a powerful financial tool that if you invest and reinvest your savings and profits regularly, your investment portfolio will steadily outgrow your salary! Now that you have understood the basic tenets of cash flows, inflation and compounding, let’s understand financial planning and its need.

WHAT ARE SHARES,STOCK EXCHANGE,DEMAT A/C ETC.



2 What are shares?
A share is one of a finite number of equal portions in the capital of a company, entitling the owner to a proportion of distributed, non-reinvested profits known as dividends and to a portion of the value of the company in case of liquidation. Equity is a share in the ownership of a company. It represents a claim on the company’s assets and earnings. As you acquire more stock, your ownership stake in the company increases. The terms share, equity and stock mean the same thing and can be used interchangeably.

3. What is a stock exchange?
A stock exchange, share market or bourse is a corporation or mutual organization which provides facilities for stock brokers and traders, to trade company stocks and other securities.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Limited, or BSE has a nation-wide reach with a presence in 417 cities and towns of India. Its index, or market indicator is known as the Sensex.

The S&P CNX Nifty, or simply Nifty, is the leading index for large companies on the National Stock Exchange of India. It consists of 50 companies representing 24 sectors of the economy, and representing approximately 47% of the traded value of all stocks on the National Stock Exchange of India (more...)

4. Who is a broker?
A stockbroker is person who is licensed to trade in shares. Brokers also have direct access to the sharemarket and can act as your agent in share transactions. For this service they charge a fee. They can also offer additional services like advice on shares, debentures, government bonds and listed property trusts and non-listed investment options (cash management trusts, property and equity trusts. (more...)

5. What is a Demat A/c?
Investors who wish to trade in the market need to have a dematerialized, or demat, account. In India, the government has mandated two entities –National Securities Depository, or NSDL, and Central Depository Services (India), or CDSL – to be the custodian of dematerialized securities. (more...)

6. Buying and selling of dematerialised securities
What is the procedure for selling dematerialized securities?
The procedure for selling dematerialized securities is very simple. After you have sold the securities, you would instruct your DP to debit your account with the number of securities sold by you and credit your broker's clearing account. This delivery instruction has to be given to your DP using the delivery instruction slips given to you by your DP at the time of opening the account. (more...)

How can I purchase dematerialized securities?
For receiving demat securities you may give a one-time standing instruction to your DP. This standing instruction can be given at the time of account opening or later. Alternatively, you may choose to give separate receipt instruction every time some securities are to be received. (more...)

7. How to receive income from shares?
We invest in shares to make money – either through a share’s capital growth, i.e. the amount by which the share price increases in value over time, or through the dividends it pays to its shareholders. Dividends are payments made by companies to shareholders from their profits. (more...)

8. How much should you invest?
Asset allocator and other tools…

9. How to make investment decisions?
The stock market has, perhaps, the most exciting investment opportunities for the investor community. At the same time, it could be unnerving and scary. In fact, equity investment has always remained a big challenge, not only for retail but institutional investors, too.

In short, investing in equities can be a difficult proposition for retail investors. However, equity must form a part of every investor’s portfolio. The proportion could vary, depending on the investor’s age, monetary requirements, risk appetite, etc.

To cope with volatility, it is important to have a disciplined and systematic approach to equity investment. Set your own rules and more importantly, follow them religiously. Indeed, the mantra for successful equity investment is a well thought-out, disciplined investment strategy.

A long-term monetary commitment, adherence to discipline in investment and decisions based on company fundamentals are essential ingredients for successful equity investment. (more...)

what is market?



1. What are Markets?
A stock market is a market for the trading of company stock/ shares, and derivatives. This includes securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. Market is a place where buyers and sellers of securities can enter into transactions to purchase and sell shares, bonds, debentures etc.
1.1 Primary markets:
The primary market is that part of the capital markets that deals with the issuance of new securities.
1.2 Secondary markets:
The secondary market is the financial market for trading of securities that have already been issued in an initial private or public offering. In the secondary market, securities are sold by and transferred from one investor or speculator to another

Sunday, August 03, 2008

SHAYARI

Arz kiya hai ..sirf aap ke liye..zara gaur se sunana
Sab kuch hai pas par dard-e-dil ki dawa nahi,
dur hai woh mujhse magar main usse khafa nahin,
maloom hai ab bhi chahti hai woh mujhe,
woh thodi zidii hai par bewafa nahin..

Kyon Maangte Ho Andhere Apne Vaaste E Dost
Jab Hum Roshni Khareed Laaye Hai
Takeed Ki Hai Baharo Se Ki Tujhse Jaakar Mile
To Kyon Tere Aas Paas Gumon Ke Saaye Hai

Apne Labon Ko Kyon Siye Baithe Ho
Kya Chhupa Hai Dil Mein Saamne To Laao
Dard Ki Lakiron Ko Mitane Do Gallon Se
Tere Liye Har Lamhe Se Muskuraahte Samet Laaye Hai

Gar Karoge Bharosa Mujh Par Dost
Waada Hai Sada Saath Nibhaunga
Har Aansun Jo Ubhrega Teri Aankon Mein
Teri Ksam Apni Aankhon Mein Sahej Laaunga

Kya ab bhi meri jhalak khuwab main nazar atee hai tumhain
Kya meri har yaad ab bhi raat bhar jagati hai tumhain

Har andhere tumhe mujh tak khench lata tha
Kya ab bhi koi roshni is tarah bolati hai tumhain

Mera har raaz tumhain hawa hi bata jatee thee
Kya ab bhi khushbu mere paigham sunatee hai tumhain

Meri taqleef per wo ankh main nammi ka aa jana
Kya ab bhi meri koi baat rolatee hai tumhain

Tumhara har jazba, tumharee ankh mujh se kah detee
Kya ab bhi wo kuch na kah kar har baat batati hai tumhain

Har awaz pe tumhe mere ane ka hota tha gumaan
Kya ab bhi koi aahat yuun satatee hai tumhain

GHANENDRA VEER VIKRAM!!

my life

Age 2 Yrs..Nurse Ko Aankh Mari....
Age 3 Yrs..Uncle ki Cigarette le kar Bhagaa....
Age 4 Yrs..Ghar walon ki Naak mein Dum....
Age 5 Yrs..School mein Teacher ko Line Mari....
Age 6 Yrs...Exam mein Cheating Karni Seekhi....
Age 7 Yrs...Pirated CD's Ka dhanda....
Age 8 Yrs...Papa Ki Car Road pe....
Age 9 Yrs...Road wale apne apne Gharon per....
Age 10 Yrs...Raat ko Subah, Subah ko Raat....
Age 11 Yrs...Club Jaana Shuru...
Age 12 yrs...Padosi ki Beti Le kar Faraar....
Age 13 Yrs...Cigarettes ki Duniya ka Baadshah....
Age 14 Yrs...Whisky & Vodka ki Duniya mein Naya Naam....
Age 15 Yrs...Jail Me Bandh for 'Drink & Drive'
Age 16 yrs..Ab Inspector se dosti ho gayi hai....
Age 17 yrs..College mein Admission
Age 18 yrs..Ladki ke saath flirting ki, aur ...................
Age 19 yrs..Ab Shareef ho gaya hoon!
Koi shararat nahin karta..Toh Dosti Kar le....?

KYA KHAYAL HAI

STOCK ANALYSIS:UNITECH

STOCK ANALYSIS:UNITECH


I have been mentioning for last several days that Realty sector are the real pains now a days on increasing interest rates, but there are few stocks in this sector which has been corrected more than enough to digest this and now some positive correction is on the card as they are now at very cheap level. Unitech stands one of them.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:-
The company has a market cap of approx 27,500 Crores with P/E 27.98 and EPS 6.06. In spite of increasing interest rates the company was able to give a satisfactory Q1. Unitech's Q1 net profit stood at Rs 423.3 crore as compared to Rs 365.7 crore in the same period last year. Total income in Q1 was up at Rs 1,054.4 crore as against Rs 899.7 crore. The company has more than 55 mn sq ft under construction.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:-
The stock has significantly reduced from 546 Rs in Jan 08 to 135 Rs in mid July 08. Now consolidating in a range of 135-170 range, In mid July the price movement has taken a place of inverted Head and Shoulder reversal pattern indicating that the stock is being accumulated at this level. The stock now above 30 sma. The daily RSI and daily MACD are exhibiting positive divergence in the line of price pattern.

Simple Moving Averages

Days BSE NSE
30 164.61 164.82
50 182.52 182.64
150 294.61 294.78
200 318.28 318.48

Thus on fundamental and technical analysis we derive a conclusion that the stock is a worth in our portfolio at current CMP
ADVICE TO INVESTORS:-

Based on the above analysis it is believed that the stock appears to have made the intermediate bottom at the long term support level at 140-145. Traders can buy the stock at current levels and on pull back with a support at 160 level for the following targets.
TARGET:-
Based on above analysis targets estimated are
i) Short term – 180-185 Rs. for positional traders with stop loss of 154 Rs
ii) Medium term – 240-260 Rs. for investors
iii) Long Term – 460-500 Rs. for investors.

Note: - All above views are mine and before investing investors should Invest at your own risk.
GHANENDRA VEER VIKRAM !!!

Stock Analysis : Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.


Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd closed at Rs 103.80, down Rs 3.55, or -3.31%. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 108.90 and an intraday low of Rs 103.25 in BSE on 31-July-2008.

It was trading with volumes of 546048 shares in BSE. On 30-July-2008 the share closed at Rs 107.35.

Currently the stock is around -50% below the 52-week high of 219.45 and around 20% above the 52-week low of 83.20.

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd has a PE of 13.33 with a EPS of 8.05. It had given good results and the market capital of this company is around 6539 Crores. Fundamentally the stock is good and can deliver profits soon.

Suggestion to Investors:
(1) I recommend a buy in Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) from a short-term perspective. It is evident from the charts of MTNL that from its 52-week high of Rs 219, the stock tumbled steeply during January 2008. This down-move continued until the stock found support at Rs 83 in early July.

(2) Since then it has been charting a short-term uptrend. I notice that the stock has formed a falling wedge pattern (a bullish pattern), spanning over the past five months. On July 24, the stock broke out of this falling wedge pattern by gaining 7 per cent with extraordinary volume.

(3) The stock is trading well above its 21- and 50-day moving averages. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is featuring in the bullish zone.

(4) The weekly RSI is displaying a prolonged positive divergence and has entered into the neutral region from the bearish zone. The moving average convergence and divergence has entered into the positive territory.

(5) My short-term forecast of the stock is bullish. I expect the stock to move up until it hits my price target of Rs 115 in the upcoming trading sessions.

(6) Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock, while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 98.

(7) Mtnl has approved 25% final dividend and 2:5 bonus issue. Share will touch Rs 200 by end of this quater.
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd Company Update:
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. has informed the Exchange regarding the standalone Results for the quarter ended on 30-JUN-2008 as follows: Net Sales of Rs. 112164.8 lacs for quarter ending on 30-JUN-2008 against Rs. 119568.7 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-JUN-2007. Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 11519.7 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-JUN-2008 against Rs. 11090.3 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-JUN-2007.
Recommendations:

Short term: HOLD

Medium term: HOLD AND AVERAGE

Long term: BUY

All views are my personal views about the stock investors should at his own risk
GHANENDRA VEER VIKRAM!!